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NFL Mock Draft 1/31

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Updated 1/31

1. St. Louis Rams 1-15

The Rams considered drafting Mark Sanchez last year, but the truth was they had too much money tied up in the quarterback position already with Marc Bulger and his giant contract and cutting Bulger would have been too much of a cap hit. This year, they can cut Bulger and actually save money so this is probably his last year in St. Louis, unless the Rams fail to get anyone better than him. Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen is, with Bradford's injury, the most complete quarterback in this draft class and would be an excellent addition to a Rams team that already has its left tackle and defensive end of the future. Many will argue Ndamukong Suh here, but, as dominant of a prospect he is, he doesn’t have the positional value here. History has shown, if a team needs a left tackle or quarterback early in the draft, they will take that above all else, even the consensus top prospect. Remember Glenn Dorsey? How about Aaron Curry? Here’s some facts. Since 1998, 36 players have gone in the top three overall. 15 have been quarterbacks, 6 have been offensive tackles, and 6 have been defensive ends. That’s only 25% that aren’t quarterbacks, offensive tackles, or defensive ends. When you look closer, all 12 #1 overall picks since 1998 have been quarterback, offensive tackles, or defensive end. The Rams don’t need an offensive tackle or defensive end, so it’ll be quarterback here. Right now, other mock drafters seem to be split 50/50 on Clausen and Suh. For more information check out our NFL Mock Draft Database.

2. Detroit Lions 2-14

The Lions need a franchise left tackle badly, but they have proven that they will take the best available player regardless of need. Left tackle would help them and Matt Stafford majorly, but they are going to take best available player. Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh is the best available player, by far, and it’s not like the Lions don’t need any help at that position. Despite the surprisingly good play of Sammie Lee Hill at defensive tackle, they are still ranked 21st against the run, although they have looked better over the past few weeks. However, left tackle is more of an immediate need for them. I hope, if they don’t take one in the first round, that they take one in the 2^nd round, for their own good. Jeff Backus is not the guy you want protecting Matt Stafford’s blindside during his development. But, you can’t really blame the Lions for taking the best available player, especially when he’s a player that is as dominant at his position as Ndamukong Suh. Only 1 defensive tackle has gone in the top three since 1998, but Suh is that good.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

The Bucs want to build around their defensive line. Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy is available. He’s not the dominant defensive tackle Suh is, but he’s a great finesse one gap penetrator at defensive tackle that could flourish if the Bucs decide to switch back to a Tampa 2 defensive system. The Bucs could also trade down if someone like Seattle offers enough to move up here and take a franchise left tackle like Russell Okung because, even though he’ll probably be the guy they’re targeting, they can get McCoy a few picks farther down.

4. Washington Redskins 4-12

The writing is on the wall for Jason Campbell. There’s a new head coach and a new GM in town. The guys who drafted him are gone, most of them long gone. He just happened to have his 2 worst games of his career in the last 3 weeks of this season and now he’s a restricted free agent. Even if the Redskins tender him a contract, they’ll likely trade him to the highest bidder and even if he isn’t traded, he’ll likely only be back on a one year deal to be a stop gap while a young quarterback waits to take over in 2011, a smart idea. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford has a lot of issues, namely his injured shoulder and the system he played in during college, but if history is any indicator, there’s a good chance he sneaks up into the top 5. Last year, I had Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman in the 2^nd round at this points. Sanchez went 5^th and Freeman went 17^th. Why? If a team needs a quarterback in the first round, chances are they take one even if it’s a reach. There are way too many teams with needs at the quarterback position this year, including Washington, for guys like Bradford and Tim Tebow, who look like borderline 1^st round picks on paper, to not go in the top 15.

5. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

Brandan Albert was one of the worst starting left tackles in the league this year and he’s movable, either by trade or more likely to a different position, for many reasons. He doesn’t have a large contract. The regime that drafted him is no longer in town. He has versatility position wise and can also play right tackle or left guard in addition to left tackle. There’s a very good chance that Albert isn’t their left tackle next year and if Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung is still available at #5, I would be very surprised if they didn’t draft him. The only reason I can see them passing on Okung is if they have their mind set on signing Matt Light in 2011 in an attempt to recreate the 2003 New England Patriots. I hear Ty Law and Troy Brown are still looking for work.

6. Seattle Seahawks 5-11

Pete Carroll could go a number of ways with his two first round picks. He could go best available. He could draft for need. He could value getting his own franchise quarterback above anything and with the way Matt Hasselbeck played at the end of the season last year, that might not be a bad idea. He could value drafting former USC players above anything. However, there’s one thing that I think is certain. If a player as good as Tennessee FS Eric Berry is available at #6, Carroll, unless he’s completely inept, is going to take him. Carroll knows talent obviously as shown by his major success at USC and I highly doubt he passes on someone as talented as Eric Berry.

7. Cleveland Browns 5-11

This is where the draft hits a crossroad. I have no idea what the Browns are going to do here. Eric Mangini didn’t draft his own guy at quarterback last year in his first offseason and with new team president Mike Holmgren, there’s a chance they go that direction, but I doubt they’ll reach for Tim Tebow to do it, especially with how much Eric Mangini enjoyed drafting random positions last year. Plus, I don’t think we’ve seen enough of Brady Quinn to call him a bust yet. I think the Browns will either draft down or go best available, but the problem is, determining who I believe they will see as best available. This pick could very well be Derrick Morgan, but he’s not a good fit for the 3-4 defense, so I won’t mock him here unless I here something from Cleveland saying that the coaching staff believes him to have the ability to play rush linebacker. Rolando McClain makes sense and I’ve actually had him here at this spot before, but then again, 3-4 middle linebackers rarely go top 10. Even Patrick Willis slipped to #11. That leaves Dez Bryant and Joe Haden, a wide receiver and a cornerback. I’ll go with Florida CB Joe Haden for now because Mangini obviously enjoys less valuable positions like cornerback…or center, but don’t quote me on this one just yet.

8. Oakland Raiders 5-11

JaMarcus Russell could be easily replaced with a large sack of potatoes with a Raiders Jersey on it and no one would notice. Because of that, quarterback is a major possibility here, especially if Tebow runs a fast 40 like Al Davis likes, but I don’t think his arm is quite strong enough for Davis’ liking. Davis would have likely drafted USC FS Taylor Mays at #7 last year if he hadn’t returned to school. While at school, Mays’ flaws were exposed in a big way, but of course Al Davis hasn’t noticed because he’s been dead for 3 years. If Mays can live up to his measurables, 6-3 230 4.3, he’s a very good candidate to go here.

9. Buffalo Bills 6-10

The Bills gave Trent Edwards a bunch of weapons to work with but they lacked that true pass blocking left tackle and thus Edwards struggled this season and was benched and the Bills sit here at 6-10 drafting in the top ten yet again. Langston Walker was supposed to start at left tackle this year, but he was cut right before the season. That’s a very bad sign. Demetrius Bell, their new starting left tackle, leads the league in penalties and their offensive line as a whole had 9 false starts earlier this season in a loss to the Browns. Rutgers OT Anthony Davis has really jumped onto the national stage as an elite franchise left tackle in past weeks so he could very well be the 2^nd offensive tackle off the board. He’ll also remind the Bills a bit of Jason Peters, who worked out well for them as a left tackle for a few years before they traded him last year. Both Davis and Peters are big over powering left tackles that are overrated pass blockers and dominant run blockers.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9

Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver pretty much promised that the Jags would draft in state Florida QB Tim Tebow in the first round in an attempt to sell more tickets and save the franchise’s future in Jacksonville. He seems to have forgotten that the Jags already have a good quarterback, David Garrard, who has a 60% completion percentage in each of his four years as starter as well as 59 touchdowns to 35 picks, but I guess the Jags will do what they have to do to make Jacksonville football fans, who clearly don’t care, come to the stadium, rather than moving the team to a city that deserves a franchise like San Antonio or Los Angeles. Despite what media is saying, Tim Tebow’s Senior Bowl performance was neutral. He had some nice throws, some bad throws, but for the most part played out of an offense similar to what he played in at Florida so we can’t really make a judgement.

To view picks 11-32 click here