NFL Football - Survivor Football

Phew!  That Jets game was waaaaaaay too close.  I think I had a heart attack for every Steve Johnson drop in that game.  A win is a win, and we move on to Week 13.

It’s getting down to the nitty gritty in terms of teams I haven’t chosen.  My best team available is the Atlanta Falcons according to ESPN’s Power Rankings at #9.  I’ll tell you now, I am starting to plan ahead, and I have them slated at Week 15 vs. the Jaguars.  That does mean I’ll be taking a team outside the Top 10 this week in the Power Rankings.  For your reference, these have been the teams chosen: 1-8, 10 (Raiders), 15 (Jets), 18 (Eagles), and 21 (Chargers)

Results

Week 1: Patriots 38, Dolphins 24- Week 2:Steelers 24, Seahawks 0- Week 3: Chargers 20, Chiefs 17- Week 4: Packers 49, Broncos 23- Week 5: Saints 30, Panthers 27- Week 6:Raiders 24, Browns 17- Week 7: Cowboys 34, Rams 7- Week 8: Ravens 30, Cardinals 27- Week 9: Texans 30, Browns 12- Week 10: Eagles 17 Cardinals 21- Week 11: 49ers 23 Cardinals 7- Week 12: Jets 28 Bills 24

As always, we’ll review 5 popular picks, and then I’ll give you my pick.

San Francisco:  (ESPN 15% / Yahoo 36%) – The 49ers haven’t lost back to back games this season, and they’re not about to start to vs. the lowly Rams.  Harbaugh has this team playing incredible with only 2 losses.  The 49ers had an extra long week to prepare for this game after losing to his brother on Thanksgiving, but don’t expect any hangover, as they take care of business at home vs. a division foe.  The only concern here is Alex Smith and the offense, but he’s been good enough lately, and the Rams have a terrible run defense.  Hint: Start Frank Gore.

New England Patriots: (ESPN 14% / Yahoo 28%) – This is the obvious pick of the week, but it’s too bad that I and most others probably have used the Patriots earlier in the season.  The spread is over 20 points, and this is not a game that Belichick/Brady will allow them to get away from them at home.  After so many close games in this budding rivalry, this could be laugher unless Peyton is visited by the “neck fairy” in the next few days.

Chicago Bears: (ESPN 13% / Yahoo 14%) – A team I can pick!  I’m not saying I’m picking them yet…. Caleb Hainey had trouble last week vs. a Raiders Defense, and I was surprised they let him try to make as many throws as they could.  In fact, I’m definitely not picking them.  Chiefs played well vs. the Steelers last week on SNF.  They go as far as their defense goes, and even with the loss of Eric Berry, they’ve been impressive over the past few weeks throwing out the game vs. New England, where Tyler Palko got his first start.  A 13-9 loss to the Steelers was closer than a lot of people expected.  And in a crazy AFC West, you can’t quite count them out.

Baltimore Ravens: (ESPN 4% / Yahoo 6%) – Despite their propensity to lose on the road (read: Jaguars, Titans, and Seahawks) vs. wins on the road (Rams and Steelers), I’d absolutely avoid this matchup.  Don’t take teams on the road, but especially not the Ravens.  The Browns showed that they have fight in battling the Bengals for 60 minutes, and I envision them doing the same vs. the Ravens, but falling just short.  One of the road wins was the Steelers, and it’s because the Ravens can get up for that rivalry.  The “Old Browns” vs. the “New Browns” is as bitter of a rivalry (if not worse), and the Ravens should win this.

Dallas Cowboys: (ESPN 9.7% / Yahoo 7.71%) –Well Kevin Kolb is back, but the Cardinals are still not that good.  I’d avoid Dallas on the grounds of them being the away team, but I do think that Cowboys will win unless Patrick Peterson returns 2 TDs.  He’s certainly been there MVP this year, and has a great future ahead of him.  The Cowboys are clicking with 5 straight wins with the emergence of DeMarco Murray bringing stability to their offense and Laurent Robinson filling in nicely for Miles Austin, who will be out again this week.

My pick…

The Bears are the only one I haven’t picked, but I have already explained why I’m not taking them above.

Here are other possibilities:

Falcons @ Texas – no way

Titans @. Bills – on road, but very tempting.  Fun Fact: Titans are 3-0 when CJ runs for more than 100 yards.

Bengals @ Steelers – no way

Broncos @ Vikings – I will not be Tebow-ed, one way or the other

Raiders @ Dolphins – I’d have to pick Dolphins here, but this game is a tossup.  Dolphins are favored, but they’re just getting points for home field

Jets @ Redskins – I’d have to pick the Redskins, and I don’t trust Rex vs. Revis

Packers @ Giants – I’d have to take the Giants.

Lions @ Saints – I’d have to take the Lions

Chargers @ Jaguars – I’d have to take the Jags

….and that leaves.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Earlier in the year, I said I wouldn’t pick against Cam Newton.  For this week, I’ll be retracting that statement.  Yes, I’m picking the team that lost 5 straight (Bears, Saints, Texans, Packers, Titans).

For those of you that like analysts who throw one stat out there and roll…. “Carolina gives up the most points to RBs, and LeGarrette Blount has had consecutive 100 yard games vs. the Packers/Titans.”  In fairness, you could reverse that and point to Chris Johnson vs. the Bucs last week, and say that the Panthers have a 3 headed monster with Stewart, Williams, and Newton.

Call it a gut feeling here– Raheem Morris came into the season with a Bucs team that had high expectations.  This season is a failure in his mind, I’m sure, but he’ll motivate his team to be up for this divisional rival. He has the benefit of seeing Cam Newton, and how defenses have contained him recently, and he’ll have a game plan to win.

Maybe I should have taken the Bears, oh well…

EDIT:  With Josh Freeman out of the game, I'm switching to the Bears over the Chiefs.  Good Luck!

If you have questions on other matchups, reach out to me at Twitter @FD_James.