NFL Football - Sleepers and Nightmares

Fantasy Drafts should be well underway. We are t-minus 13 days from the start of the football season on September 8^th live from Titletown U.S.A. For those of you wondering about WR’s this year in your draft. My honest opinion the depth of solid WR who will give you solid production this year has never been deeper. I got three guys you want to target in your draft and three to stay away from.

SLEEPERS

Mike Sims-Walker (St. Louis Rams) – MSW struggled in 2010 due to the fact the defenses started rolling the double coverage to him which allowed Mike Thomas and Mercedes Lewis to post career numbers.

He signed with St. Louis to a one year “prove it” deal in the offseason. The stars are aligned for MSW to have a career year, here is way. The OC is Josh McDaniels who did wonders with journeyman Brandon Lloyd last year in Denver.  Bradford is a better QB than David Garrard ever was. There are more offensive weapons in St. Louis than in Jacksonville, so MSW will see less double teams and should be able to flourish in this offense.

MSW is being undervalued in a lot of drafts this year and is primed for a career season, and is being valued as WR4 in most drafts.  This is insanity!  Draft him and by near the end of season he will be putting up WR3 possibly WR2 stats.

Mario Manningham (N.Y. Giants) - Manningham drew 20 more targets, caught 10 more balls and scored three more TDs in the eight games after Steve Smith’s 2010 injury than in the previous eight. However, 28 of Manningham’s 56 second-half targets came in two games. Take away those and his two no-catch October games, and you get a five-target average per game. Nine of the remaining 12 games fell within one of that number.

With Smith now gone to Philly, Manningham should see plenty of opportunities. Manningham faces the most favorable cornerback schedule of any wide receiver in the league, ranked 17th in wide receiver scoring in 2010 (despite starting only eight games) and is being selected in most drafts on average as the 25^thWR taken.

Add it up, put in a bottle shake it up and it means he is a draft-day steal waiting to happen.

Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers) – A lot of you might be surprised that I am putting Jordy on the list. No it’s not because I am die-hard non bandwagoning Packers fan (well maybe a little lol), but he warrants sleeper mention. He had double-digit targets in last year playoff run culminating in 15 target 9 catch – 140 yards with 1 td.

But to be honest there is no risk aversion with Nelson whatsoever, despite the return of Jermichael Finley and the resigning of James Jones—the bulk of the concern here.

Nelson played more snaps than Jones in 2010 (701 for Nelson – 649 for Jones) and that was as the Packers 4th receiver on the depth chart, and the presence of Finley will undoubtedly open up passing opportunities for Nelson and the Packers passing game—gold for fantasy owners.

Nelson is a prime WR3 candidate who will easily be drafted as a WR5 which is an unbeatable price is you ask me.

NIGHTMARES

Sidney Rice (Seattle) – Gone are the days of legend Brett Favre passing to Rice. Depending on who will be under center in Seattle be it Tavaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst, Rice is someone I don’t have much confidence in this year.

In the past 4 years Rice has spent more time in the training room than in the end zone. There is a little upside in the fact he is only 25 years old, had a breakout 2009 season and while in Minnesota he had a 12.3% career TD rate, 0.5 better than Cris Carter. I just have no faith in him until some stability has issued at QB.

Mock Drafts have him in the going around the same time as Dez Bryant, Antonio Gates, and Dallas Clark (ADP 53) that is way too high for him at this point. In my eyes to fill further notice he is WR3, possibly a bench rider.

Brandon Marshall (Miami Dolphins) - If you arrive with Marshall’s baggage and proceed sluggishly through your first season with a new team, tries to spend the offseason doing something other than getting stabbed by your wife.

Fortunately, aside from that, Marshall has said he’s gotten into the best shape of his career with the same regimen he used to prepare for the 2006 draft. He did draw the fifth-most WR targets in the league last year despite missing about 2.5 games and surpassed 1,000 yards for the fourth straight time. But is he worth the mid-fourth round ADP he currently possesses? In PPR leagues maybe. In non-PPR leagues, lol.

I just feel with the Chad Henne under center or Matt Moore or Derek Anderson for that matter. Brandon Marshall should be drafted as a WR3 with WR2 potential.

Johnny Knox (Chicago Bears) – This will either be a breakout season for Knox or the end of people predicting a breakout. Some might argue that downplays his 2010. The Bears threw the fewest passes in the league last year — shocking under pass-happy OC Mike Martz. Project Knox’s rates in those 466 attempts over the 563 of 2009, and you get a top-20 PPR receiver or a top-15 guy in non-PPR.

For what it’s worth, rookie Torry Holt posted a 52-788-6 line for Martz in 1999. In 2000, he jumped to 82-1,635-6. His ADP of 117 concurs with his unfortunate demotion, with the arrival of Roy Williams, but just in case you hadn't followed the Roy-over-Johnny situation, this lets you know not to draft him in the fifth to sixth round where he belongs. Until this WR position settles, he's not draftable in my opinion and if you decide to draft him, draft him to your bench and take a couple week wait and see approach.

If you hacve questions regarding come check me out on Twitter @FD_Matt!