NFL Football - Sleepers and Nightmares

As we approach our 2011 drafts, numerous strategies are discussed.  Most involve drafting an elite QB early.  I think it's important, but there's always value available late, which allows for other important skill position picks.  Maybe you'll skip Aaron Rodgers, but pick up Andre Johnson.  That's not a bad trade-off, especially considering the quarterbacks available in the 9th or later rounds.

These guys are considered “sleepers”.  They'll fall far, but give you good production.  They're reliable and durable, and can lead your team to a championship.  In this article, we'll go over three quarterbacks you should have on your radar, and three quarterbacks you should avoid like the plague.

Sleepers:

Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan, affectionately known as “Matty Ice” may not be the coolest of picks (see what I did there?), but he’s sure to go in the later rounds, far past the elite’s, and his production may not be far off.  Last year he put up excellent numbers as a third-year quarterback, when he threw for 3700 yards with 28 TDs and just 9 INTs.  I’m a big believer in quarterbacks who can stay out of trouble, and Ryan fits that mold.

As the trust in him grows, so too will his numbers.  Despite possessing a fantastic running back, Atlanta has increased Ryan’s attempts in each of his previous two seasons.  Last year he threw for 571 attempts, a number you should pay plenty of attention to.  If he can increase his completion percentage, which did increase from the previous year to 62%, Ryan could easily throw for over 4,000 yards.  

It also helps that Ryan has Roddy White, an elite wide-receiver, to throw to.  The two have made a fantastic connection, and they have become a reliable tandem.  White is an elite at his position, and Ryan could be the same at his by the end of the 2011 season.  Don’t pass on him if he falls to you.

Joe Flacco

If you’re looking for value in your draft, look no further than Joe Flacco.  The man is consistent.  Since his 2008 debut, he has remained around a 61% completion percentage, he has yet to miss a game in his three years starting, his attempts have gone up, and his INTs down.  All very good signs that he will continue to produce.

Last year Flacco threw for 3600 yards, 25 TDs, and just 10 INTs.  He is surrounded by people who help him succeed.  His defense allows him to get back on the field quickly, and he has a fantastic check-down back in Ray Rice.  Unlike Michael Turner for Matt Ryan, Ray Rice adds to the value of his quarterback.

Flacco has proven that he can be a reliable fantasy starter, yet he’s typically picked in later rounds.  He’s not going to give you monster numbers, but he isn't going to kill you with INTs either.  If you pass on, or miss, the elite quarterbacks available, wait on Flacco while you feast on receivers.

Ben Roethlisberger

Okay, so maybe Big Ben is not much of a “sleeper”.  Yet every season, without fail, he is taken far later than his production warrants.  He deserves to be right outside of that elite tier, if not in it.

Don’t believe me?  Look at his numbers.  While his 2010 season may not jump off the page at you, he did display genuine improvement.  In limited time due to his suspension, Roethlisberger put up 3200 yards with 17 TDs to only 5 INTs.  That puts him around his 2009 pace, which was a very solid year, with perhaps less INTs.

There’s always a risk involved when drafting Big Ben.  No, you’re probably not going to have to worry about his off-the-field issues.  Ben has displayed poor judgement in the past by putting himself into sketchy situations, but he isn’t completely stupid.  A second rape allegation and a quarter-season suspension should be enough to eliminate his antics.  As a fantasy owner, I’d be more worried about his ability to stay healthy.  He allows himself to get hit far too often, which could come back to bite him in the modern concussion-conscious NFL.

I like to call this a “calculated” risk.  Roethlisberger’s ceiling is incredibly high, and you’ll likely be able to buy low.  Just be sure to have a quality backup on hand.

Nightmares:

Kevin Kolb

Remember when I said Flacco has proven his reliability?  The exact opposite is true regarding Kevin Kolb.  Through no fault of his own, he missed a season of experience after the surprising success of Michael Vick.  The fact remains that Kolb hasn't yet had a chance to prove himself.  In his very limited experience, Kolb has thrown for just 2000 yards in 320 attempts, with 11 TDs and 14 INTs.  There's absolutely no way to spin those numbers in any direction.  At this point, he is an unknown.

There's a strong possibility that Kolb can be successful this season; he certainly has the right receiver in Larry Fitzgerald.  There's just no facts to substantiate that as of yet.  As a late round backup, sure, pick up Kevin Kolb.  But you might want to think twice, maybe even thrice, about utilizing him as your starting quarterback.

Kyle Orton

Kyle Orton had a good 2010 season.  So good, in fact, that I thought it would alleviate him in the minds of both fans and the Denver Broncos organization.  In limited time (just 13 games) he threw for over 3600 yards with 20 TDs.  He's undoubtedly the best quarterback Denver has on its roster, and based on his success, he deserves be their guy for a least a few more seasons.

Of course, he's not going to be that guy.  That's because Tim Tebow is on the roster, and despite all of the negative criticisms surrounding him, he's going to get a look.  The Broncos organization paid far too much for him to see him sit.  Thanks Josh McDaniels!

Orton therefore could give decent returns to fantasy owners in the first three-quarters of the season.  But if the Broncos are out of playoff contention late in the season, there's a strong if not sure possibility that the organization is going to switch over to Tebow, leaving fantasy owners high and dry for their playoffs.

At best, Kyle Orton should be a bye week start.

Mark Sanchez

I don't like Mark Sanchez.  It's nothing personal, it's all fantasy related.  Nothing bothers me more than when a quarterback, young or old, has plenty of weapons around him, yet fails to succeed.  That's Mark Sanchez in a nutshell.  How you fail to go to LaDainian Tomlinson, one of the greatest check-down backs of all time, on a consistent basis, is beyond me.

Like last year, Sanchez has his weapons. Plaxico Burress has been added to Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, Santanio Holmes, and Dustin Keller.  Yet the Jets aren't built around their passing threats.  This is a team that will continue to rely on its defense and running game.  Do I expect big things from Shonn Greene this year?  Absolutely.  But not of Sanchez.

Simply put, Sanchez needs to prove himself before he can be trusted to make big throws.  He's not there yet, and he doesn't deserve to be there.  Last year, which was an improvement over his rookie season, saw him throw for almost 3,300 yards at a lousy 54% completion percentage.  Consider that in 2009 his completion percentage was just 53% and you should see why there's plenty of reason to worry.  He isn't improving fast enough.  And until he does, Rex Ryan is going to determine his success on how well he stays out of the rest of the teams way.

Photo by: Keith Allison courtesy of Creative Commons 2.0