NFL Football - Sleepers and Nightmares

As fantasy drafts are going on and coming up, we here at Fantasy Daddy will do series of "Sleepers and Nightmares" for each position.

Here is the running back edition, and I'll start with the sleepers.

Sleepers

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers- With QB Ben Roethlisberger suspended for the first four games of the season (most likely), the Steelers are almost certain to lean on the ground game with Byron Leftwich likely under center.   Mendenhall should get plenty of work during September, and should be the Steelers' primary ball carrier all season.  Look for him to improve on his 2009 numbers (1,108 rushing yards, seven touchdowns) this season.

Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts- Brown missed five games as a rookie last season, which led to just 89 total touches (78 carries) and 450 offensive yards (281 rushing).  If he can stay healthy this season his role should increase, and he has more upside than backfield mate Joseph Addai.

Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders- Bush is now three years removed from a devastating leg injury that cost him his senior season at Louisville, and seems built (245 pounds) for at least a goal line role if not the feature back role for the Raiders.  Only the injury-prone Darren McFadden stands between him and a lot of playing time right now.

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants- Bradshaw averaged 4.8 yards per carry and ran for seven touchdowns last season, despite playing through stress fractures in both feet and a bone spurs in his right ankle.  Preseason speculation has him in line for a 50-50 carry split with Brandon Jacobs, who has his own significant injury history.   Bradshaw is the type of late-round flier that can win a lot of leagues if he gets the opportunity to produce.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans- With rookie Ben Tate (ankle) now out for the season, the Texans' RB rotation may have gotten a little clearer.  Foster finished 2009 strong, with 39 carries for 216 yards and three touchdowns over the season's final two games.  Steve Slaton is also in the mix, but his skills may make him best suited to being a third down back.  Foster stands to open the season as Houston's starting tailback, barring something unforeseen.

"Nightmares"

Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins- The Portis/Shanahan reunion in the nation's capital may have some fantasy owners thinking Portis will be a fantasy star in 2010.  But he has major health concerns, including a serious concussion that ended his 2009 season eight games.  Portis will turn 29 on September 1, but 2,176 career carries make him a little older than that in running back years.

Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs- Jones has topped 1,300 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons, and has scored a combined 27 rushing touchdowns in that time frame.  A change of scenery to the rebuilding Chiefs, and the presence of Jamal Charles, makes the chances of a three-peat extremely remote for Jones. Oh yeah, and he's 32 years old, which also minimizes his fantasy upside.

Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams- Jackson had 1,416 rushing yards and 51 receptions last season, but scored just four touchdowns for the offensively-inept Rams.  He had back surgery in the offseason, but has been proclaimed healthy and should again be the main man in the St. Louis offense and a likely first round pick in a lot of fantasy drafts.  But he has played all 16 games just once in six NFL seasons, so count of some missed time if you draft him.

Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots- Maroney had nine rushing touchdowns last season, but fumbling issues may have cost him playing time.  Add in the fact the Patriots like to use multiple running backs (Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk), and you have to think a repeat of last year's touchdown total is unlikely for Maroney.

Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins- Williams took advantage of Ronnie Brown missing seven games last season with a right foot injury to put up 1,121 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns as he also averaged 4.7 yards per carry as well.  If Brown can stay healthy, which is admittedly a big if, Williams will move back in to a time share situation.  That is obviously bad news for anyone expecting a repeat of 2009 from the former Heisman Trophy-winner.

Comments  

 

# FantasyDaddy 2010-08-21 15:56

Brad,

Nice work. I have to disagree with you on SJAX. I think he will be fantastic this year and worthy of a top 8 pick.

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# 2010-08-23 22:12

Brad,

You are completely wrong about every "nightmare" back that is currently on my team.

You are exactly right about each of the "sleepers" that I have on my team.

so-so job overall

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# 2010-08-29 09:15

Nice article. However, I strongly disagree with Jackson being a nightmare, and Portis is in really good shape and could actually be a sleeper this year.

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