Baseball - Position Rankings

Welcome to the hardest fantasy baseball position to predict, the closers.  Follow me at @FD_James for more questions on closers, pitching, and fantasy baseball in general.

High draft picks shouldn’t be wasted on closers, and as long as you have a closer, you’ll get saves.  Most times for your team it’s best to secure a top closer, but if you don’t, load up on a few Tier 3/4 closers that will get you saves, and you’ll still be in very good shape.

The key to doing well in the SVs category is to find a team that will have the most Save opportunities, and normally these are the teams that have the most wins.  Let’s take a look at the top closers from last year.

The important thing to note here is that all of these were playoff teams with the exception of Atlanta and Craig Kimbrel.

Is this starting the obvious? Maybe.  But, let’s take an example.  Joakim Soria (despite his bad season last year) is one of the best closers in baseball, but while he’s on the Royals, he won’t ever get as many Save opportunities as Mariano Rivera.  Andrew Bailey is the most interesting closer this year moving from the average A’s to the stacked Red Sox.

Also, for the record these rankings will not take into account RPs like Neftali Feliz & Matt Moore, who are RP eligible, but are not assuming the closer role for their respective teams.

Now that the important fact is out of the way, let’s move on to the RP rankings.

Tier 1

Jonathan Papelbon – 31

Jonathan Papelbon is primed for a big year.  After the 2010 season, there was talk that he may be losing it, but he responded with a strong 2011 dropping almost a full ERA point, but he also had 6  less saves.  Phillies last year went closer by committee due to injuries, but Papelbon has had a consistent amount of innings over the past few years should step in and be greeted by less scary bats and join the team who’s the favorite to win the World Series and with an average (or less than average) offense with Ryan Howard injured to start the season

Craig Kimbrel – 23

Kimbrel came on strong last year placing with 46 Saves in his debut season as the Braves closer.  There was a rocky point in the season where it appeared Venters may have take his job, but since that point, Kimbrel came back strong.  His ERA peaked at 3.38, but he finished at 2.10.  Also, take a close look, his arm may have worn down at the end of the season.  In his last 8 appearances, he blew 3 saves.  Even if he had 50% less blown saves (8 to 4), Kimbrel would have had 50 Saves.  Look for him to be more consistent this year, and get another 46 Saves or so.

Brian Wilson - 30

By all accounts, it appears that the Great Bearded one will remain…. Bearded, and he’s vital in the Giants regaining their World Series form from 2010.  He was often injured, as was most of the Giants last season, but the team still has two great qualities that will allow Wilson to remain a top closer.  They have an inept offense, and great starting pitching that can hand off to Wilson in the 9^th.  He won’t get 48 Saves this year, but he’ll get higher than 36.

Mariano Rivera – 42

Self-imposed rule:  I can’t rank the ageless one higher than his age divided by 10 (rounded down).  He’s still an elite closer, and he is really showing no signs of slowing down, but he’ll eventually hit the wall.  I don’t think this is the year quite yet.  Look for another strong season from Mo’ on the perennial World Series contender Yankees.

John Axford – 28

The Brewers may lose Ryan Braun to suspension and Prince to Free Agency, and John Axford’s closer stock may just improve slightly.  Greinke, Marcum, and Gallardo will still hand off enough close games to Axford for him to get his saves.

Tier 2

Drew Storen – 24

The NL East is stacked this year.  This will be a pitching heavy division, and it could mean a lot of close games for the Nationals.  While finishing just under .500 last year, there is the much bally-hooed return of Stephen Strasburg & the addition of Gio Gonzalez, which will help the Nationals become a contender in the NL East for years to come.  The only concern here is that due to the amount of really good teams in the NL East is that they could beat each other up a bit.

JJ Putz – 35

Behind great pitching and solid bats, the Diamondbacks solidified themselves as an NL contender.  JJ seized the closer role, and was very successful with the exception of a small injury where David Hernandez filled the role nicely.  Injury is really the only concern with Putz.  If healthy, he’s due for another big season.

Heath Bell – 34

Heath Bell takes his talents to South Beach to debut as the inaugural closer for the Miami Marlins.  He replaces Juan Oviedo (aka Leo Nunez) on a team under Ozzie Guillen.  The team made significant FA signings to bolster their team and he’ll have plenty more opportunities in Miami over San Diego to gain Saves as he rounds out the 4^th NL East team in the Top 8 closers.  Spoiler alert: Frank Francisco (Mets) is NOT in my top 15, so no blurb about him.

Jose Valverde – 34

He converted 100% of his SVs last year, and led the league in SVs.  Yet, he’s ranked 9^th.  A “Prince” coming to town is sure to drop his SV Opportunities down a bit next year, and while he’s a good closer, it’s almost impossible to repeat 0 blown saves in a year.

Andrew Bailey – 27

Andrew Bailey was bitten by the injury bug again last year.  He gets vaulted into the top 10 by virtue of changing from the Oakland A’s to the Boston Red Sox.  The Red Sox have one of the most potent offenses in the majors, so the improvement may not be as large as some people think.  In fact, Boston as a team had 52 SV Opportunities where OAK had 57 last year.

Tier 3

Joakim Soria – 27

Hopefully, I won’t be eating “Crow” this year.  An astute Fantasy Baseball player will get the terrible pun.  For everyone else, Aaron Crow stole some of Soria’s saves last year when Joakim struggled a bit.  I expect to him have a bounce back season, and from a closer perspective.  He could be a decent “buy low” candidate.  I have him ranked 11, and he was 21^st last year, but he was 4^th in Saves in 2010.  He’s still on a young team that’s on the verge, similar to the Nationals.

Carlos Marmol – 29

The Cubs were a disappointment again in 2011, but as always there is hope in the Northside, but it may be valid with a new front office led by Theo Epstein.  Carlos Marmol is going to want to impress the new management, and if you are not spending high on Kimbrel, Marmol is the best bet to reach 100 K’s of any closer.

Jordan Walden - 24

Jordan assumes the full time closer position on the re-loaded LAA.  With Albert Pujols & C.J. Wilson in the mix, I expect a strong season from the young gun, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to get you Saves.  I’d like to see one more year out of him before I rank him higher, but nice upside here, especially for those in Dynasty leagues.

Ryan Madson -31

Ryan earned his payday after filling in for Lidge nicely in 2011.  In Philadelphia, they gave him a number of chances to be the 9^th inning guy prior to last season, and it hadn’t clicked for him.  I’m a little cautious here on Madson, and wanted more than one line to explain why.  The Reds are contenders, so if he succeeds, he’ll do well, but the Reds may also work Aroldis Chapman back into the closer role eventually, if his experiment as a SP fails.

Huston Street - 28

Can Huston Street stay healthy?  That’s question one.  He’s a nice sleeper, if he does, because he’s out of Coors, and into the friendliest pitcher’s park in the game.  The only negative is that he’s on the Padres, and Save Opportunities may be slim.

Tier 4

Joel Hanrahan – 30                 *Last year’s stats weren’t a fluke, but PIT was 24-47 in 2^nd half

Jason Motte – 29                     *Let’s hope Matheny doesn’t play closer by committee like TLR

Joe Nathan – 37                      *He’s not any younger, but now a year removed from TJ surgery

Brandon League – 29             *Hard to discount last year’s numbers, expect the same

Sergio Santos – 28                  *People are expecting big #’s, but very dependent on SPs’ success

Tier 5

Chris Perez – 26                      *Didn’t have the prettiest WHIP/ERA, but expect the same

Kenley Jansen – 24                 *He may not start the season as the closer, but expect him to end it

Rafael Betancourt – 36           *Has shown promise in part-time relief efforts, now he’s full-time

Frank  Francisco – 32               *Mets had the 5^th most Sv Opps last year, he’ll get his chances

Matt Capps – 28                     *He’s the man with the departure of Joe Nathan