Baseball - Position Rankings

Shortstop which used to be a major strength in the fantasy baseball world is now longer. The gap between 1 and 10 production wise has become quite the huge gap, though there is value there just don’t reach for it to high. Here are my projections and how I feel the SS will fair this season.

Tier 1

1.  Troy Tulowitzki Age: 28                                                Bats: Right

Every year Tulo ends on the DL for small injuries but you can’t overlook his production at such a shallow position now that the gap between 1-2 is so great now. Draft him with confidence and don’t be scared to reach around 5 in the first round especially how effective he has been on the final stretch of the fantasy baseball season.

Tier 2

2.  Hanley Ramirez Age: 28                                                      Bats: Right

This is probably the most pivotal year of H-Ram’s career. He is moving to 3^rd with arrival of SS Jose Reyes but will keep his SS eligibility. He has been injured the past 2 years in some fashion or another and his attitude has a lot to be desired. With Ozzie Guillen  on board now I think he gets to H-Ram and you see him return to 2009-2010 form.

3.  Jose Reyes                                Age: 28                                                  Bats: Right

Reyes decided to take his talents to South Beach this offseason. The warm weather should be able to help his hammy’s from being so problematic this season and you should see Reyes strive if he stays healthy. Speculation is the Miami’s new stadium is a pitcher park but if it isn’t Reyes has the potential to be a 15 HR, 70 RBI, 40 SB monster.

4. Starlin Castro Age: 22                                                            Bats: Right

Castro is fast rising up the shortstop rankings. He major strides in his second year and played in 158 games. He was one league leaders in doubles a sign that more power is come ahead. He could breakout this year so don’t be afraid to reach for Castro, especially in a keeper or dynasty league.

TIER 3

5. Asdrubal Cabrera Age:26                                      Bats: Both

Cabrera hit 25 home run, when his previous career high was 6Such an enormous HR/FB spike is almost surely unsustainable, so he should regress towards the mid-to-upper teens in home runs. 2011 was the first season that Cabrera did not miss significant time, so be cautious of his health when deciding if you want to draft Cabrera.

6. Elvis Andrus Age: 23                                        Bats: Right

Andrus took a step forward in 2011 after spinning his tires in 2010, hitting 5 home runs, and stealing a career high 37 bases. He cut his strike out rate by more than 3%, meaning that his batting average trending up could be for real. At just 23, he has some growth left in him, so don't be shocked if he steals 40+ bases and develops a little more power (5-10 home runs). Andrus will benefit from hitting at the top of a stacked Texas lineup.

7. Jimmy Rollins Age:33                                                Bats: Both

Jimmy Rollins bounced back in 2011 with a reasonably healthy and productive year. He hit 16 home runs and stole 30 bases, his fourth 15/30 season in his career. Rollins' peripherals are fairly steady, so a sharp decline looks improbable for the Rollins, who will be 33 on opening day in 2012.

Tier 4

8. J. J. Hardy                             Age: 29                                                     Bats: Right

Hardy had a very good season after getting healthy in 2011, hitting 30 home runs for the first time in his career. He was fortunate with a 43% fly ball rate, so if he maintains the fly ball uptick, he could again hit 30 home runs if he can stay healthy for a full season, which he rarely does. Hardy doesn't offer any speed, and provides a neutral batting average at best, so you are really banking on his power here. Don't reach and pay for his best possible outcome in 2012.

9.  Alexei Ramirez Age: 30                                                     Bats: Right

Ramirez 2011 numbers looked very similar to usual outputs, and I don’t see that trend changing. You know what you’re getting out of Alexei, nothing fancy just steady production.

10. Derek Jeter Age: 38                                              Bats: RIght

Jeter put a very nice second half of 2011 together after his fantasy value was pronounced dead by many by a awful 1^st half of last season. There is no question that Jeter is declining the question will he decline gracefully or drop bad, even though he hits atop a potent Yankee lineup. There is that fear that Jeter might be done, but don't completely overlook him due to his poor 2011 first half.

11. Jhonny Peralta Age:30                                               Bats: Right

Peralta had one of his best seasons in his first year in Detroit. He has a good chance to post a moderately helpful batting average in 2012. He also maintained the 8% fly ball spike that he had in 2011, making him a good bet to push 20 home runs again. Expect numbers just a tick below his 2011 campaign

12. Erick Aybar Age: 28                                               Bats: Both

Aybar had the best season of his career in 2011, going 10HR/30SB. Aybar is just now entering the prime years of his career, so don't expect his numbers to tail off much. He could be a good value in later rounds in 2012 drafts, so don't let him slip too far. He could be a sneaky surprise this year.

Tier 5

13. Dee Gordon Age:24                                             Bats: Left

Dee Gordon could stumble his way to 40 stolen bases if he gets regular playing time in 2012. He stole 24 in just 56 major leagues games following his debut in 2011. While he won't offer any power he has the type of speed that lead major league baseball in steals one day. Gordon probably won't hit over .300 in 2012 but he has tons of upside on the base paths, as long as he can hit and field enough to stay in the lineup.

14. Stephen Drew Age: 29                                              Bats: Left

Stephen Drew's season was not going very well before his season ending ankle injury. He has substantially increased his K’s in each of the last two years, a trend that he needs to reverse or he will become a batting average risk. His low HR/FB rate should bounce back, so he should return to a low-teens home run total. Drew does not look like he will ever fulfill his perceived potential, don't overdraft him expecting a huge bounce back season.

15.  Ian Desmond Age:25                                            Bats Right

Ian Desmond regressed in almost every area in 2011. The one bright spot was that he did steal 25 bases, but his contact rate regressed, as did his isolated power, and his HR/FB rate. These declines were only moderate, but Desmond needs to make sure they don't become a trend. He could take a step forward and produce good value in 2012, but don't pay too much for that chance.

Other Notables (By Rank)

Yunel Escobar

Emilio Bonfacio

Jed Lowrie

Rafael Furcal

Clint Barmes

Yuniesky Betancourt

Alcides Escobar

Zack Cozart

Cliff Pennington

Alex Gonzalez