Baseball - Position Rankings

Welcome to probably the hardest fantasy baseball position to predict, the closers.  Follow me at @EightGamesBack for more questions on closers, pitching, and fantasy baseball in general.

High draft picks shouldn’t be wasted on closers, and as long as you have a closer, you’ll get saves.  Most times for your team it’s best to secure a top closer, but if you don’t, load up on a few Tier 3/4 closers that will get you saves, and you’ll still be in very good shape.

There are a considerable amount of factors to consider, but the overall’s team success may be the most significant (Brian Wilson).  There are also elite closers on terrible teams, and they are harder to judge (Joakim Soria).  Finally, there are the John Axford’s of the world that come out of nowhere and just plain surprise you.

Last year was an especially crazy year at the closer’s position, but let’s take a look at some of the closers last year, and how their team fared:

Matt Capps?!?!?  Who saw that one coming?  His 82 win total comes from a combination of Washington & Minnesota wins, and he’s not even the closer this year.  For that matter, neither is Rafael Soriano, who is now the setup man for Mariano Rivera.

If you consider that Matt Capps was on Minnesota, these closers are 4 of the top 10 teams according to regular season wins.  Joakim Soria is simply a stud.

Now that the important fact is out of the way, let’s move on to the RP rankings.

Tier 1

Brian Wilson – 29

I’ll give you the fact that this is a cliché pick.  I’m taking the closer on the World Series Champions, whose team is based on pitching dominance, and an offense just good enough to win games.  Giants had the most save opportunities last year, and it should continue again.  I do have him projected to have lower amount of saves because of the strength of the NL West, and a low-powered offense.

Mariano Rivera – 41

Say what you want about the Yankees not making any big offseason splashes, but they did land Rafael Soriano, who will stabilize the 8^th inning for the Yankees.  Mariano is getting old, and his Save/Strikeout numbers may have been down, but he still had elite closer numbers, and look at it this way, he can only go up.

Jonathan Papelbon – 30

The Red Sox loaded up with offseason acquisitions, and despite a poor season last year, Jonathan Papelbon will have a lot of opportunities to come back and have an impressive season.  Oh yea, he’s in a contract year as well.

Joakim Soria – 26

As mentioned above, Joakim Soria is an elite closer on a bad team.  Greinke leaving may hurt his numbers a little, but at least when you draft Soria when he gets the ball in the 9^th inning, you know you’re getting a save.  You’ll say that 39 times this year.

Heath Bell – 33

Heath Bell will be a victim of Adrian Gonzalez traveling east to Boston.  Additionally, like Brian Wilson, he’s on a low-powered offense in the competitive NL West.  Will he get you 40 saves?  Probably... but there could be stretches where he’ll be save-less.

Tier 2

Neftali Feliz – 22

Neftali Feliz was a sleeper that met expectations and exceeded them last year.  The Rangers are still the team to beat in the AL West this year, so I’d expect comparable numbers from the young closer.

Carlos Marmol – 28

A few extra K’s never hurts does it?  The jury is still out on Marmol being an elite closer, but his K/9 ratio is incredible, and he outperforms some starting pitchers.  The Cubs have re-tooled with Pena/Garza, and they could contend in a wide open NL Central race this year.

Andrew Bailey – 26

Andrew Bailey was shut down in September, but is good to go for 2011.  There’s a reason he won the AL Rookie of the year, and this guy has all the tools you like for a young closer.  He’s a slight injury risk, and Fuentes/Ziegler are lurking, but if the A’s have success, Bailey will be a big part of it.

Joe Nathan -36

Here comes the second injury closer in a row.  Joe Nathan was ranked #1 in last year’s rankings, and for good reason.  He’s cleared in 2011, but after a year off with injury, he has to be de-valued some.  Minnesota Twins always do well, and he’s better than Rauch/Capps last year who combined for 40 saves.

Francisco Rodriguez – 29

Wishing last year he would have punched out batters like he punched his father-in-law last year? Me too.  Maybe it was pitching at Citi Field, but he had his best years since his 62 save season with the Angels.  The Mets are under new management, and all indications are that they aim to be the Padres of this season.  There is upside for Frankie, so don’t forget about him just because he’s on the lowly Mets.

Tier 3

John Axford – 27

Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf is the rotation in the NL that no one is talking about.  It’s yet to be determined whether John Axford is the closer of the future in Milwaukee, but his starters will give him plenty of opportunity to succeed.

Brad Lidge – 34

I know what you’re thinking.  I said that a closer’s success is tied closely to the success of the team.  Phillies have the best rotation in recent memory, but you can also be an inconsistent closer on a bad team.  You can also have Halladay/Lee who pitch a lot of CGs on the team.  I need to put him in Tier 3 because I feel Phillies will have the most wins and Manuel is a loyal manager to his players.

JJ Putz – 34

His last three years don’t look that good, but JJ Putz had 40 saves in 2007 with the Mariners.  He has a closer opportunity again with the Diamondbacks, and he may not bring the prettiest ERA/WHIP numbers, but he’ll get you saves, and that’s what you want.

Jonathan Broxton – 26

I have Broxton lower than most rankings, but I look that he only had 2 saves in the last 2 months of the season.  While he’s still young and can come back to form, the leash will be short if the Dodgers want to contend in a wide open NL West.

Craig Kimbrel – 22

Kimbrel looks to be this year’s Neftali Feliz.  He’s on a good team, committed to winning, and even with the departure of Bobby Cox, Freddie Gonzalez will be a good fill in for the Braves organization.  Many people compare him to Carlos Marmol, and those extra K’s will certainly not hurt.

Tier 4

Huston Street – 27                  *High Upside, but injury risk

Francisco Cordero – 35           *Young team had success, but NL Central re-tooled

Ryan Franklin – 38                 *On playoff-caliber team, but has never had dominant stuff

Drew Storen -23                     *Nats are young & upcoming team, see Capps above

Brandon Lyon – 31                 *Bad team, but Lyon will bring you a good number of SVs

Tier 5

Jose Valverde – 33                  *On Detroit, he’ll get plenty of opportunities

David Aardsma – 29               *Maybe high because on DL, but good closer/bad team

Chris Perez – 25                      *He’ll get your saves, but they may not be pretty

Leo Nunez – 27                      *If he becomes consistent, he’ll wow you with saves

Kevin Gregg – 32                   *Remember, the O’s turn-around at the end of the year?