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Fantasy Baseball Rankings : Starting Pitchers

Baseball - Position Rankings

Starting Pitching Projections for 2010

Tim Lincecum

 

The Little Freak has been the most dominating pitcher in baseball the past two years and there is little reason to think that he can’t do it again.  Pitchers are the lifeblood of winning teams and every championship owner will agree that you will need at least 2 from the Top 3 tiers to win a championship.  Sure you can go the safe route drafting all offensive players the first 4 rounds and finish 2nd, but you won’t ever take home the trophy by avoiding pitching.  The difficult part is that pitchers are very hard to predict as they are more prone to injuries and being that they take the mound every 5 days they have to make the most of their chances; but hey that’s why I’m here to help.

Tier 1

Tim Lincecum – 26

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

18

2.62

227

265

1.17

2009

15

2.48

225

261

1.05

Projected

17

2.47

225

269

1.07

 

Lincecum is the only pitcher that I would recommend in the first round.  He has dominated the NL in strikeouts both the last two years and has one the CY Young award the last two years as well.  Don’t think there is room for upside?  Think again, His ERA and Walk have both declined the past three years and at 26 years old…he is young enough to improve on those numbers.   Look for the Little Freak to dominate for years to come!

 

Tier 2

Roy Halladay-33

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

20

2.78

246

206

1.05

2009

17

2.79

239

208

1.13

Projected

21

2.71

240

216

1.09

 

Doc has been the model of consistency for years and has done so with poor run support and in the toughest division in baseball.  The trade to Philadelphia places him on both a better team and a more pitcher friendly league.  Don’t wait past the 2nd round to draft this consistent stud.

CC Sabathia-29

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

17

2.7

253

251

1.11

2009

19

3.37

230

197

1.15

Projected

21

3.25

225

201

1.13

 

CC was one of the biggest pickups of the year last year and he didn’t disappoint.  Though his Strike outs declined sharply he was very tough to hit against.  Don’t get discouraged in his first month as starts as he is a notorious slow starter but also don’t wait to jump on this 20+ win, 200 K work horse.  If you miss out on CC in the draft, try and pry him away from his owners when he starts of slo

 

Zack Greinke-26

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

13

3.47

202

183

1.28

2009

16

2.16

229

242

1.07

Projected

16

2.82

210

232

1.15

 

The NL Cy Young Awards winner has increased his strikeouts the past four years.  He plays for a mediocre team, so 17+ wins are going to be very hard to come from but since wins can be a gamble from year to year why not settle for Elite numbers in every other Category.  Go get Him!

 

Felix Hernandez-24         

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

9

3.45

200

175

1.39

2009

19

2.49

238

217

1.14

Projected

18

2.85

239

212

1.19

 

After failing to live up to his potential the past 3 seasons, the 24 year King Felix came to training camp 20lbs lighter and locked in.  The much anticipated break through arrived and there is no reason to not believe that it will happen again.

Johan Santana-31

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

16

2.53

234

206

1.15

2009

13

3.13

166

146

1.21

Projected

16

2.95

185

170

1.2

 

The long time Fantasy ace was plagued with pain in his elbow and bad run support.  He’s expected to be fully healthy coming into spring training.  With others steering a way, now may be a great time to buy low.

Dan Haren-29

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

16

3.33

216

206

1.13

2009

14

3.14

229

223

1

Projected

16

2.99

223

215

1.09

 

One of the most under rated and yet consistent pitchers in baseball.  The St. Louis organization still has nightmares from the day they let Dan Haren slip away.  His strike outs have increase the past four years and his 1.49/walk per 9 innings was one of the lowest in the majors.  Don’t underestimate this Fantasy Anchor!

 

Tier 3

Justin Verlander-27

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

11

4.84

201

163

1.4

2009

19

3.45

240

269

1.18

Projected

18

3.39

235

232

1.23

 

The Tigers Ace rebounded nicely after a horrible 2008.  He is a work horse with a very nasty arsenal.  If he can maintain his control he will carry many fantasy teams to a championship this year.

 

Adam Wainwright-28

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

11

3.2

132

91

1.18

2009

19

2.63

233

212

1.21

Projected

21

2.85

228

202

1.23

 

Wainwright will no longer be a sleeper on Fantasy draft boards.  He plays for one of the best teams in the National League who have gotten better with the acquisition of Matt Holliday.  There is no reason to think that he can’t repeat.  Don’t let this guy slip past he 5th round.

 

Javier Vazquez-33

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

12

4.67

208

200

1.32

2009

15

2.87

219

238

1.03

Projected

18

3.2

221

229

1.2

 

This National League Cy Young contender has moved to arguably the best team in baseball.  Though moving to the American League east will increase his ERA and WHIP, his Strikeouts and potential for 20+ wins will make him a very hot commodity on draft day.

 

Cliff Lee-31

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

22

2.54

223

170

1.11

2009

14

3.22

231

181

1.24

Projected

16

2.9

227

187

1.13

 

The 2008 Cy Young Award winner has proven himself in the American League before with Cleveland and the Mariners play in a very pitcher friendly ball park.  I am expecting a Monster season from this under rated star that you can probably get around Round 6.

Jon Lester-26

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

16

3.21

210

152

1.27

2009

15

3.41

203

225

1.23

Projected

18

3.35

219

207

1.19

 

The younger of Boston’s 1-2 punch matured very nicely into a dominant strike out pitcher last year.  Lester is entering his prime and if he can lower his walks/9 a tad you will have a Tier 2 pitcher in Tier 4 draft position.

Josh Beckett-30

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

12

4.03

174

172

1.19

2009

17

3.86

212

199

1.19

Projected

16

3.8

217

208

1.17

 

Boston’s Ace put up yet another great season.  He did have a brutal August finish or his ERA would have been closer to 3.3.  There is no reason to believe that Mr. Beckett won’t be a fantasy ACE yet again.

 

Tier 4

Tommy Hanson-23

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

0

0

0

0

0

2009

11

2.89

127

116

1.18

Projected

14

3.2

209

190

1.25

There are many who are going to be skeptical of the 23 year olds rookie season, however don’t be one of them.  Atlanta’s future ace limited hitters to a NL low .192 BA.  Many people will pass up Hanson for the likes of more injury plagued players…when they do Smile and Pounce!

 

Josh Johnson-26

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

7

3.61

87.1

77

1.35

2009

15

3.23

209

191

1.16

Projected

16

3.3

215

200

1.19

It took Johnson several years to live up to his hype but in 2009 he finally delivered.  He is ranked second only to Ubaldo Jimenez in Avg. fastball velocity.  His increased groundball ratio and decrease in walks are signs that Mr. Johnson is here to stay.  His nagging injuries will keep some weary on draft day.

Chris Carpenter-35

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

0

1.76

15

7

1.3

2009

17

2.24

192

144

1.01

Projected

19

2.35

199

157

1.09

 There is no doubt that Carp has had numerous injuries, however there is also no doubt that when healthy he is one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball.  He led the National League in ERA and almost a lock for winning 75% of the games he throws.  If your looking for a T2 pitcher and a T4 price, Carp is one injury risk that I’m willing to take.

 

Yovani Gallardo-24

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

0

1.88

24

20

1.25

2009

13

3.73

185

204

1.31

Projected

15

3.65

210

229

1.22

Yovani was injured for most of 2008 but came into the scene in 2009 with a vengeance.  The kid’s stuff was virtually unhittable logging 204K’s in 185 innings. Some will cry about his innings increase, I will draft and laugh!

Cole Hamels-26

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

14

3.09

227

196

1.08

2009

10

4.32

193

168

1.29

Projected

15

3.8

205

177

1.21

Hamel’s plays for the National Leagues best team and will be given some of the best run support in baseball.  He had a lack luster season in 2009 but it wasn’t all his fault.  His defense let him down big time.  Hamel’s is a 4 category stud that will come at a discount.

Clayton Kershaw-22

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

5

4.26

107

100

1.50

2009

8

2.79

171

185

1.23

Projected

11

3.1

195

198

1.23

If it weren’t for this super talented lefty’s walks (91) this 21 year old pup would have been one of the best pitchers in baseball.  I like to think of Kershaw as the next Felix Hernandez and sure he might still be a year or two away from that but I wouldn’t wait too long to find out.

 

Tier 5

Brandon Webb-31

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

22

3.3

226

183

1.2

2009

0

13.5

4

2

2

Projected

14

3.4

195

172

1.26

Webb was one of the most dominant starters in baseball before last years shoulder injury.  All signs point to a successful surgery and that he will be ready by spring training.  Though I personally am always very cautious and drafting pitchers coming off of Injury Webb is one that I would consider.

Ubaldo Jimenez-26

2008

12

3.99

198

172

1.43

2009

15

3.47

218

198

1.23

Projected

15

3.55

225

199

1.29

There is no doubt about Ubaldo Jimenez’s Heat.  He had the Top fastball in the N.L. last year and has a nasty sinker ball to boot.  Ubaldo’s problem has always been his control.  He can pitch a gem one game, then destroy your stats the next.  He is only 26, so hes entering his prime.  Ubaldo is a guy I would draft and stash as he has the stuff to be a gem.

Ricky Nolasko-27

2008

15

3.52

212

186

1.1

2009

13

5.06

185

195

1.25

Projected

14

3.68

199

203

1.24

One thing you can control in drafting pitchers is their Strikeouts.  Ricky was one of the Best strike out pitchers in baseball last year, and many will stay away due to his inflated ERA.  If you notice his Whip was still respectable so this suggest the ERA was due more to bad luck.  Though he wont win you a ton of games in Florida, Ricky will surely fall to low in drats.

Jake Peavy-29

2008

10

2.85

179

166

1.18

2009

9

3.45

101

110

1.12

Projected

12

3.25

170

150

1.22

Once heralded as one of the best pitchers in baseball, Peavy has not been able to pitch over 180 innings the last 2 years.  His move from Petco park will not aid to his stats either.  Peavy will surely be over drafter in many leagues and I would much rather wait several rounds and draft someone without the high profile name.

James Shield-28

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

14

3.56

215

160

1.15

2009

11

4.14

219

167

1.32

Projected

14

3.95

218

165

1.27

Shields came off of an impressive 2008 to fall back in 2009.  Shields seems to pitch great against the Yankees and Red Sox, but seems to have issues with bad teams on the road.  At 28 I’m wiling to give shields one more shot at putting together a complete season.

John Lackey

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

12

3.75

163

130

1.23

2009

11

3.83

176

139

1.27

Projected

14

3.69

195

148

1.21

Lackey will not bring you home the Strike Out title, however he is the Ace of one of the better teams in the American League.  He has had is share of injuries the past two years, however when he pitches there is no doubt of his potential.  He is in a contract year, so why others avoid…feel free to pounce on.

Jered Weaver-27

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

11

4.33

176

152

1.28

2009

16

3.75

211

174

1.24

Projected

17

3.89

208

169

1.25

The better of the brothers finished in the top 10 of most categories while pitching a career high in innings.  He is about as consistent as they come, and pitching for the Angels is always a good chance at 20 wins.  Draft with confidence.

Chad Billingsley-25

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

16

3.14

200

201

1.34

2009

12

4.03

196

179

1.32

Projected

16

3.48

198

186

1.31

The Dodgers future Ace is very hard to predict.  He has shown flashes of brilliance, while also showing flashes of immaturity.  Though he will probably be overprice on draft day, I would have to believe that at the age of 25 and having his car insurance cut in half he will realize he is now an adult and step up his game.

Scott Baker-28

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

11

3.45

172

141

1.18

2009

15

4.37

200

162

1.19

Projected

15

3.95

210

168

1.16

 Mr. Steady! There’s a lot to like about Minnesota’s 28 year old.  He is an above average Strike out pitcher who doesn’t walk a lot of batters.  If you throw out his first 5 starts last year, he would have been a top 25 pitcher.

 

 

Matt Garza-25

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

11

3.7

184

128

1.24

2009

8

3.95

203

189

1.26

Projected

12

3.85

206

175

1.25

At 25 there’s a lot to like about Garza.  He has been a pretty consistent pitcher aside from his sudden surge in Strikeouts.  He was also the prisoner of a Tampa offense that put up very little run support.  I would expect a little bit more of the same from last year with a handfull more wins.

Wandy Rodriguez-31

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

9

3.54

137

131

1.31

2009

14

3.02

205

193

1.24

Projected

13

3.35

206

185

1.28

Wandy is a pitcher who typically always goes undrafted, however finds himself on most top teams by the end of the year.  After his surge in Strike outs last year, Wandy wont fly on the radar any more.  He is a good pitcher that will help in 4 categories.

Roy Oswalt -32

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

17

3.54

208

165

1.18

2009

8

4.12

181

138

1.24

Projected

12

3.75

195

152

11.21

Oswalt had the worst season of his great career, and probably left many managers wishing he would have retired.  He has always been an asset in ERA and WHIP, and if his back can hold up you will find yourself with a good pitcher at a very modest price.

Matt Cain-25

W

ERA

IP

K

Whip

2008

8

3.76

217

186

1.36

2009

14

2.89

217

171

1.18

Projected

14

3.35

217

175

1.25

There are many who think Cain’s numbers last year were a fluke and that he is a one year wonder, Not I.  He is a work horse who will contribute solidly in every category and he’s only 25.  While others pass, go ahead and ask for seconds!  Great value.

 

TIER 6

A.J. Burnett-33

Jair Jurrjens-24

David Price-24

Clay Buchholz-25

Ryan Dempster-33

Max Scherzer-25

Johnny Cueto-24

Ervin Santana-27

Jorge de la Rosa-29

Tier 7

Carlos Zambrano-29

Kevin Slowey-26

Ted Lilly-34

John Danks-25

Jonathan Sanchez-27

Edwin Jackson-26

Rich Harden-28

Chris Young-31

Tier 8

Mark Buehrle-31

Gavin Floyd-27

Hiroki Kuroda-35

Tim Hudson-34

Wade Davis-24

Scott Kazmir-26

Joba Chamberlain-24

John Maine-29

Andy Pettitte-38

One Year too Soon!  Keeper Leagues keep your eyes on

 

Stephen Strasburg-21 Washington Nationals

The Top pick in the draft has been dubbed by many as the Lebron James of baseball.  A can’t miss prospect.  He won’t start the year in the majors however I don’t believe the Nationals will keep him in the minors very long.  They paid him a Huge amount of money and  desperately need talent on the field to bring fans to the park….He wont win many games but expect at least 160 K’s, 2.90 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Brett Andrson-22

This guy is a future star in the making.  He pitches in a very pitcher friendly park and has maturity and arsenal to be a top 15 pitcher this year.  DO NOT let him fall too far as I would much rather have him then bigger names such as Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zombrano, or AJ Burnett.

Projection:  13 wins, 3.9 ERA, 191 IP, 175 K’s, 1.22 Whip

Brian Matusz- 23 Baltimore Orioles

Everyone knows about Strasburg but the Top pick in the 2008 draft is not one to forget.  The 6.5 Lefty has a filthy arsenal and finished 2009 very strong capping it off with a win over the Yankees.  Don’t let him fall far and though he will have some road bumps in the AL East, this is a guy you want.

Projection:  10 Wins, 4.2 ERA, 190 IP, 178 K’s, 1.38 WHIP

 

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