Baseball - Baseball

In predicting the performance of pitchers, there is an abundance of advanced stats that can help paint a picture of a player due for better performance or on the flipside due for a correction after an excellent performance. BABIP, FIP, K/9, BB/9, etc. all serve as indicators in both directions and excellence in one or two categories can cover up a pitcher’s shortcomings elsewhere.

Here is my list of pitchers who are likely to be sleepers on draft day, and likewise those that may be overvalued and have bust potential.

SLEEPERS

Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Colorado Rockies

Guthrie made at least 32 starts and topped 200 innings for the third straight season in 2011, but he also lost 17 games for the second time in three seasons. He was traded to the Colorado Rockies in early February, so the move out of the AL East should benefit him even though he will pitch his home games in the thin air of Denver as a flyball pitcher. That said, elsewhere in NL West there are weak lineups and pitcher-friendly ballparks, so even without a ton of strikeouts (5.6 K/9 last season) Guthrie could be a useful starter for mixed league owners.

Brandon Beachy, SP, Atlanta Braves

Beachy missed just over a month of his first full big league season with an oblique strain, but otherwise had an elite K/9 rate (10.7) and other solid peripherals (2.9 BB.9). One concern is the fact he only pitched more than six innings in three of his 25 starts and 45 percent flyball rate last season, but that seems like nit-picking as Beachy looks like a potential ace otherwise. Among the other young pitchers in Atlanta Beachy may fall below the radar for some fantasy owners, which stands to create nice return on any draft day investment with the upside he has.

Baker missed time with an elbow issue in 2011, and he has only made 30 starts or pitched more than 175 innings once in the five seasons in the five seasons in which he has spent the majority of his time in the big leagues. He has traditionally been a flyball pitcher, and that did not change in 2011 (45 percent), but his rise in strikeout rate (8.2 K/9) and improved control (2.1 BB/9) are noteworthy. Health is the key concern here, but there is upside to be had here as long as Baker’s elbow is sound and he is expected to be fine once spring training gets into full swing.

Frank Francisco, RP, New York Mets

Francisco had 17 saves and a 3.55 ERA over 54 appearances with the Toronto Blue Jays last season, and was particularly good in the second half of the season (1.37 ERA, 24:4 K/BB ratio, 7-for-7 in save opportunities). But he was one of the odd men out when the Blue Jays decided to revamp their bullpen this offseason, and ultimately signed a two-year deal with the New York Mets. Francisco should be the frontrunner to be the Mets’ closer, but there may be some competition during spring training from Jon Rauch and Bobby Parnell in particular. Durability is an issue at age 32 since he has never made 60 appearances in a season, and a declining strikeout rate is a concern (9.4 K/9 last season, from 11.8 in 2008), but fantasy owners looking for a cheap source for saves late in their draft can do worse than Francisco.

Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jansen shook off a poor April (11.45 ERA) and an early DL stint due to regular heartbeat to set a major-league record with a 16.1 K/9 rate (minimum 50 innings pitched) and allowed just eight hits in 23 appearances post All-Star break. He and Javy Guerra are expected to compete to be the Dodgers’ closer, but as long as Jensen’s health issues (including shoulder trouble) from last season are behind him he may be the frontrunner. If he can improve his control (4.4 BB/9 in 2011), or even if he doesn’t Jansen could pile up a lot of saves and offer a big strikeout total to fantasy owners this season. That is more than enough to make him worthy of a late-round pick in mixed leagues.

Honorable Mention: Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays; Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers; Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs; Edinson Volquez, SP, San Diego Padres; Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox; Rex Brothers, RP, Colorado Rockies

SLEEPING

Ivan Nova, SP, New York Yankees

Nova came out of nowhere last season, going 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 165.1 innings (28 appearances-27 starts) and establishing himself as one of the saviors in the Yankees’ starting rotation. He was particularly stellar after the All-Star break (8-0, 3.18 ERA), but suffered an injury to his forearm in his ALDS start against the Detroit Tigers. He looks to be 100 percent heading into spring training, but he will need to improve his strikeout rate (5.3 K/9) and walk a few less batters (3.1 BB/9 last season) to sustain 2011’s success. Last season’s win total will lead to Nova being overvalued in a lot of fantasy drafts, and no one should expect a repeat of 2011.

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Hellickson went 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA over 189 inning last season (29 starts), as he won American League Rookie of the Year. But his peripheral numbers, most notably a .231 BABIP and a 5.6 K/9 rate, suggest his ERA will rise in 2012 if he does not improve his control (3.4 BB/9). His minor league track record (9.8 K/9) suggests he could strikeout more batters, so there is some hope for that to improve in his second full big league season. All things considered, Hellickson is unlikely to post an ERA below 3.00 in 2012, and fantasy owners that expect that and draft him accordingly may be left disappointed.

Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta Braves

Jurrjens got off to a fast start in 2011, going 7-1 with a 1.51 ERA in nine starts in April and May and ultimately going 12-3 with a 1.87 ERA in 16 starts prior to the All-Star break. But then injuries hit, and he did not pitch after August due to a right knee injury. He is expected to be 100 percent healthy, and back with the Braves despite some offseason trade rumors surrounding him. Jurrjens has never been an elite strikeout pitcher, but his strikeout rate dropped nearly 1.5 per nine innings last season (5.3 K/9) and his average fastball velocity dropped two MPH as well. He may be able to find the form he showed in 2008 and 2009, when he made 65 starts total and had 27 combined wins, but the health risk posed by the last two seasons may make Jurrjens more trouble than he’s worth on draft day.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, San Francisco Giants

Vogelsong had not pitched in the big leagues since 2006 prior as he spent time in Japan, but that seemed to make little difference as he posted a 13-7 record with a 2.71 ERA in 30 appearances (28 starts) last season and emerged as one of the most surprising players in all of baseball. An excellent strand rate (81 percent) certainly helped propel his ERA downward and without improvement in his strikeout rate (7.0 K/9 last season) another ERA below 3.00 looks unlikely in 2012. All is not lost as Vogelsong continues to have a pitcher-friendly park to call home, but opponents now have a full season as a frame of reference after his long absence and that does not bode well for a repeat performance.

Jose Valverde, RP, Detroit Tigers

Valverde converted all 49 of his save opportunities in 2011, but further examination shows a continuing decline in strikeouts (8.6 K/9) and a sharp decline in groundball rate compared to 2010 (43 percent last season, from 55 percent). He also had a BB/9 rate above 4.0 (4.2) for the second straight season last year, so a correction looks to be in store. The Tigers should provide plenty of save opportunities and Valverde still has plenty of fantasy value even with declining peripheral numbers, but he literally has nowhere to go but down after last season.

Honorable Mention: Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis Cardinals; Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds; Rafael Betancourt, RP, Colorado Rockies; Philip Humber, SP, Chicago White Sox; Alexi Ogando, RP/SP, Texas Rangers; Josh Collmenter, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

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